Planning for the Trump Duties

I'm not gonna gripe about the Idiocracy of America, but I am gonna plan for the strange dumb trip that they've been brainwashed into choosing.

The new administration's tariffs (a.k.a. Trump's Duties) mean the prices of imported goods are gonna basically double shortly after January 21st of next year. No more cheap shit from China, especially sellers like Temu, Alibaba, Shein, and more! Until the whiplash of reality cripples the MAGAT's into admitting guilt, I need to strategically plan my next presidential dictators term of possible required purchases, and then hedge my bets before it starts. Unfortunately for me, this just means I have to spend a bunch of money very quickly. Pundits and scholars agree that the following consumer-level imported purchases are sure to go up in price:

  • electronic components
  • household appliances
  • aluminum
  • furniture
  • apparel
  • footwear

So with that in mind, I need to figure out what do I need to buy in the next two months, knowing it'll cost twice as much next year, and possibly stay at that rate for at least another 4+ years?

Old and busted, meet the new hotness

Outside of replacing a broken unit, I'm fairly covered when it comes to most things, but I need to think longer term: what's nearing the end of its useful life, and will certainly require replacement in the next four years? My budget is not endless, and I need to conserve my expenditures:

  1. My craptop (main driver) is now 9 years old, and it's already showing its age; it will not make it to 13 years. I need to buy a new computer that will give me another decade of service, and a brand new, top-of-the-line (but cheapest) Apple M4 (introductory price of $599) will hold me off well enough without blowing out my budget. I have no doubt that Trump might bend over backwards for 'CEO Tim Apple', and their pricing might not be screwed, especially since they've brought processor design in-house, but we'll see.
  2. I always buy a few generations behind the newest mobile phones. Swappa will continue to supply me with new Android devices second-hand, and quarter-price. They are all tracking leashes we willingly carry anyway... Having just bought a used Pixel 5a phone, I'll hold off on anything until this one fails. I think I replace my phone about every 2 years, so we'll see how used tech prices are affected (I assume they'll keep their value longer? Less disposable?)
  3. My Ubuntu / Plex home media server has been dutifully serving me well for years (and saves me from subscription costs from so many streaming services, thank you!), but I wonder if it'll make it until 2029. It's dwindling on spare disk space to hold my massive media libraries, and there's not enough redundancy to survive an utter drive disaster (I'm due!). A new Ubuntu Server and massive internal Hard Drive might be a smart investment now and ease my already strained (and full) media drives. We don't need 'brand new', just newer, and a budget of $600 should cover the new desktop and drive. Installing an already purchased GPU will allow quicker transcoding and even more multi-client streaming for my small set of friends and family enjoying my Plex Server with it's lifetime license.
  4. I also want to reduce my carbon footprint - by going electric. An electric bike would replace a bunch of short trips I take with my car, reducing the annual miles and gas costs. I think I can get by with a slightly lower powered motor and battery, as most of my trips would measure under 5 miles, and the 30-60 mile trips offered with expensive bikes is overkill. Buying direct from China, I think my budget will be $500 $560 (!), knowing full well that it'll cost twice as much next year... I might did splurge on an extra battery now and planned for the required replacement before pricing spikes.
  5. Obviously, I don't buy the raw material of Aluminum, but I have to think of it's end uses: Soda cans will raise grocery pricing, and Aluminum appears in every other electronic product especially in wiring, and always in Batteries. At this point I do not have any plans for how to hedge this bet. This may bite me in the ass later. I've already given up commercial sodas, and use glass storage over plastic or aluminum. I guess I'll try not to come up with a consumer electronic device for the next few years? Perhaps purchase coils of 15 and 20 gauge Romex house wiring for any future Real Estate Development now? I remember the spike in cost with the pandemic, this time the spike will be going directly into Trump's coffers.
  6. As a full grown adult in my 50's, I have a surplus of furniture, and have owned and ridded myself of a lifetime's worth already; (Speaking of, wanna see my current Craigslist or eBay listings?) I don't imagine needing any new stuff, and can relegate myself to watching the prices on Ikea furniture slide up year on year. Younger generations might want to make a big furniture purchase now before next year, knowing it'll last 5 years at minimum. As I've always checked Craigslist first for all purchases anyway, it looks like I'm stuck with this second-hand habit until 2029. It seems my mother's affection for antiques has finally rubbed off on me!
  7. As for my wardrobe (apparel and footwear), I've uniformed up many years ago (same socks, underwear, pants and shoes every day with varying t-shirts to make it look fresh). But simply buying as much as I can afford might not be a bad decision - two pairs of anything now will be be the same price as one in a year (it's all made in China really, and I can't afford a tailor). Assuming I don't lose or gain a bunch of weight, I think a few pairs of pants and a few pairs of shoes might last long enough. I've written about this tip in 2013, where I date all my clothes so I can predict their replacement schedule and this is where it came in use! For now I'll wear these clothes until they fail, then grab the replacement off the storage shelf, while waiting patiently for the 2028 Democratic Presidential Candidate to resuscitate a dead economy...

How the fuck am I gonna pay for this? (Shrug)

I'm already living paycheck to paycheck, I have zero savings, and this is the $2,000 surprise emergency spend that is required, timely, and urgent. I'm sorta fucked.

Update Dec. 11, 2024

temu_tariff_prep

Looks like my favorite Chinese retailer Temu.com (see inset) is also preparing for the Trump Tariffs and have setup a US based billing company to handle this transition. Screenshot is from my checking account charges, and there's a change in the last 5 days or so. I'd guess Temu is gonna ship as many of their most popular goods to the US distribution point before Jan. 20th, and then slowly increase their rates to smooth the transition of pre-Tariff goods (already inside the US) to post-Tariff goods (imported with the new Tariffs added) in order to keep their mail-order business booming. According to The Register China is gorging on Silicon in preparation...